US housing may fall further under the weight of foreclosures and
not rebound until 2013, even as the economy builds momentum and
mortgage rates remain at record lows, according to a survey of
109 economists released this week by Zillow Inc. When values do
rise, the gains probably won’t match those seen in the years
prior to the bursting of the bubble in 2006. Prices for resold
homes are down 31% since the July 2006 peak, based on the
S&P/Case-Shiller Index that tracks 20 major metropolitan areas.
Values have increased 3.1% since bottoming out in March, though
more than a quarter of homeowners with a mortgage are
“underwater,” or owe more than their property is worth. Prices
may drop an additional 7%, according to Scott Simon, head of the
mortgage- and asset-backed securities teams at Pacific Investment
Management Co. in Newport Beach, California. Homes are more
affordable now than at any time on record, setting the stage for
a turnaround, he said in a telephone interview. US home values
probably had their smallest decrease in four years in 2011,
according to Zillow, whose survey found that prices may find
their floor in late 2012 or early 2013 and will begin rising by
3% a year through 2016. That appreciation is modest compared with
the last decade, when double-digit annual increases were common,
the Seattle-based provider of real estate data said. “Negative
equity, unemployment and low consumer confidence remain the key
factors delaying a true recovery,” Stan Humphries, Zillow’s chief
economist, said in a statement.
Prices will fall 1% in 2012 and rise 2% in 2013, Frank Nothaft,
chief economist for mortgage-finance company Freddie Mac, said in
a Dec. 14 report. “A full-fledged recovery in the housing sector
will likely elude the US in 2012, but new construction and home
sales are expected to be greater than in 2011,” Nothaft wrote.
Beating 2011 shouldn’t be hard. Sales of new single-family homes
this year are on pace to fall to 301,000 from 323,000 in 2010,
which was the lowest in Commerce Department data going back to
1963. While housing starts hit a 19-month high in November, led
by a surge in multifamily construction, the annual rate of
685,000 for the month compares with a January 2006 high of 2.27
million. Existing home sales rose to an annualized 4.42 million
in November, the highest in 10 months after figures were revised,
the National Association of Realtors said yesterday. The data
showed that annual sales were an average of 14% lower than
previously reported since 2007, magnifying the impact of the
downturn. “Even before the revisions things were bad,” Lawrence
Yun, the group’s chief economist, said at a news conference
yesterday. “Now they are even worse.”
As lenders tightened credit standards, 33% of Realtors reported
sales being canceled last month because of problems such as
mortgage denials or low appraisals, the Chicago-based group said
yesterday. That’s up from 9% a year earlier. Americans are
taking advantage of low interest rates to refinance rather than
buy, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Refinancing
accounted for 80.7% of home-loan applications for the week ending
Dec. 16, the most in 13 months, the Washington-based group
reported yesterday. Foreclosure filings, which slowed in 2011 as
banks and loan servicers faced investigations over the use of
improper documentation to seize homes from delinquent borrowers,
are expected to be little changed in 2012, according to
RealtyTrac Inc. A total of 224,394 properties received default,
auction or repossession notices in November, down 14% from a year
earlier, the Irvine, California-based real estate data service
reported Dec. 15.
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